How Water Scarcity Will Shape the Next Centuries of Kenya ?

« While water wars may be a myth, the connection between water and political stability certainly is not ».(Wolf, 1998) 

When I started this blog, I wanted to know if the scarcity of drinking water could lead, tomorrow, to inter-state warfare. Throughout my research, I tried to interview people from different backgrounds (UCL is truly an international university). I met three people, but one of them made me realise an aspect I have not though of. His name is Muhammad. He is originally from a rural area in northern Kenya. This meeting made me realise that my study was too focused in inter-state relations; and that I was missing a point. In fact, he told me about a phenomenon that I didn't had in my scenarios plans; intra-state wars. (Homer-Dixon, 2000, p.28)

By which mechanism?

In a region hit by a growing scarcity, socio-economic conditions deteriorate, food production stagnating or declining and a population becoming poor. This impoverishment push rural populations to migrate to the cities where the government would not be able to welcome them due to the lack of resources. When I say welcome, I mean, the government is not able to mobilize the financial resources to build basic infrastructure. (Homer-Dixon, 1995)

Mathare slum Nairobi, Kenya (DW.DE, 2012)



Kibera (Kenya, Nairobi) is Africa's largest human settlement or "slum" where water is expensive and often hard to find.(DW.DE, 2012)

Strengthening the vicious circle of poverty and the use of violence of uprooted populations. This dark scenario highlights the potential role of the lack of water in the degradation of the social fabric. It updated some of the mechanisms that might lead, from impoverishment, rising insecurity and the progressive inability of the government to ensure security face a rise in violence or terrorism - Scenario pessimistic "The Coming anarchy" by Kaplan (2000). 

It may be that there is no foreseeable future "wars" of the water within the meaning of the term agreed but the internal strife are there and probably will go on multiplying, water being in turn the cause, the reason or one of the components of these multiple disorders.

                                         [ Want to Know More? ]

Homer-Dixon, T. (1995) «The Ingenuity Gap: Can Poor Countries Adapt to Resource Scarcity?» Population and Development Review, (21) 3, p. 592.

Wolf, (1998) «Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways», Water Policy, (1), 2.

Kaplan, R. (1994)  « The Coming Anarchy », The Atlantic Monthly, The Coming Anarchy, Shattering the Dreams of the Post-Cold War Era. Random House.

Homer-Dixon, T. (1999) Environment, Scarcity and Violence, Princeton University: Press Princeton.

De Villiers, M. (2000) «La géopolitique de l'eau », Paris: Revue des Deux Mondes.