Can civil conflits be associated with the global climate change ?

"There is a strong correlation between large-scale climate variations and conflicts."

Mr. Adger was in Paris this Tuesday to participate in a research workshop on a topic organised by the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri) with the British and French defence ministries. The topic was a discussion about the link between climate change and the triggering of wars. A review of existing studies led Hsiang (2013), from Princeton University, to conclude that there is a strong correlation between large-scale climate variations and conflicts. He argued that "conflict increases and social stability decreases when temperatures are hot and precipitation is extreme, but in situations where average temperature is already temperate, anomalously low temperatures may also undermine stability". Solomon's statement was harshly criticised by Buhaug (2013), from the Centre for the study of civil wars (Oslo), for whom 'a correlation without explanation only leads to speculation'.

The link between Climate change and conflicts need a comprehensive approach.

 

Climate may play a role in conflict situations but it is not the main cause. Indeed, the mode of development of the countries, the strength of institutions and the degree of inequality that prevails must be taken into account. To appreciate the link between conflicts and climate change it is essential to use a comprehensive approach. The several linkages indicated, in Figure 1, shows a large number of possibilities of whether or not conflicts may be linked to climate change. Moreover, quantitative studies have to be completed by qualitative case studies. 

Similarly, competition for scarce resources, possibly driven by climate change, does not necessarily lead to conflict. Kallis, from the University of Barcelona, showed that contrary to preconceived ideas, there is no evidence of "water wars". But rather, some forms of cooperation to manage the resource coveted. In fact, Berkman (2013), from the University of California, stated that "Climate change can lead to conflict, but as strategies of cooperation. It follows a logic of global thinking, which grows to build common interests, a coordinated response of mankind to the danger."

                         [ Want to Know More? ] 

Solmon and al., 2013, Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict.
Berkman, 2013, Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean.